Trend estimation of sub-national level daily smoking prevalence by age and sex in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Despite that the smoking prevalence has considerably declined in Australia after successful public health strategies over many decades, smoking is still the leading cause of preventable diseases and death in Australia. These declines have not occurred consistently across all geographical-demographic domains. In order to provide an evidence base for monitoring the trend towards the goal of reducing smoking across all domains in Australia, this study aims to estimate trends of smoking prevalence for small domains cross-classified by seven age groups (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years), two genders, and eight states and territories over twenty years (2001-2021). METHODS: Direct estimates of smoking prevalence for the target small domains were calculated from the micro-data of the Australian National Health Surveys conducted in seven rounds during 2001-2021. The obtained direct estimates were then used as input for developing time-series models expressed in a hierarchical Bayesian structure as a form of small-area estimation. The developed models borrow cross-sectional, temporal, and spatial strength in such a way that they can interpolate smoking levels in the non-survey years for all detailed level small domains. Smoothed trends of smoking prevalence for higher aggregation levels are obtained by aggregation of the detailed level trend predictions. RESULTS: Model-based small area estimators provide consistent and reasonable smoothed trends at both detailed and higher aggregation levels. Results show that the national-level trend exhibits a steeper linear decline over the study period, from 24% in 2001 to 12% in 2021, with a considerable gender difference of around 5% over the period, with males reporting a higher prevalence. Improved model-based estimates at the state level and by age also show steady declines in trends except for the Northern Territory (still above 20%) and older age groups 60-69 and ≥70 years (declining trends remain stable after 2012). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the study identify the geographical-demographic groups that had poor improvement over the period 2001-2021, and are still behind the target of achieving lower smoking prevalence. These, in turn, will help health researchers and policymakers deliver targeted programs to the most vulnerable, enabling the nation to meet its health goals in a timely way.

Western Australia remote aeromedical substance use disorders outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Substance use disorders (SUDs) cause significant harm to regional Australians, who are more likely to misuse alcohol and other drugs (AODs) and encounter difficulty in accessing treatment services. The primary aims of this study were to describe the demographics of patients aeromedically retrieved from regional locations and compare hospital outcomes with a metropolitan-based cohort. AIMS: Retrospective case-controlled cohort study. Participants were aeromedically retrieved within Western Australia for SUDs between 1 July 2014 and 30 June 2019. Retrieved patients were case-matched based on age and hospital discharge diagnosis. Descriptive statistics and χ2 analysis were used to summarise the findings. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-six (91.3%) aeromedical retrievals were found, with the majority being male (n = 95; 69.9%). These were case-matched to 427 metropolitan patients, the majority male (n = 321; 75.2%). Retrieved patients were more likely (all P < 0.05) Indigenous (odds ratio [OR], 9.35 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.96-14.85]), unemployed (OR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.41-6.80]), referred to a tertiary hospital (OR, 2.18 [95% CI, 1.24-3.86]) and to stay longer in hospital (OR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.02-1.14]). DISCUSSION: Findings highlight that unmarried and/or unemployed males were overrepresented in the retrieval group, with over half identifying as Indigenous. Regional variation in retrievals was noted, while amphetamine-type stimulants featured prominently in the retrieval cohort, who experienced longer hospital stays and more restrictive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing clinical outcomes for retrieved regional patients experiencing SUDs, service design and delivery should focus on offering culturally safe care for Indigenous people, catering for regional health care catchment areas, while ideally adopting collaborative and integrated approaches between AODs and mental health services.

Trends in chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh for small domains.

Chronic childhood undernutrition, known as stunting, is an important population health problem with short- and long-term adverse outcomes. Bangladesh has made strides to reduce chronic childhood undernutrition, yet progress is falling short of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals targets. This study estimates trends in age-specific chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh's 64 districts during 1997-2018, using underlying direct estimates extracted from seven Demographic and Health Surveys in the development of small area time-series models. These models combine cross-sectional, temporal, and spatial data to predict in all districts in both survey and non-survey years. Nationally, there has been a steep decline in stunting from about three in five to one in three children. However, our results highlight significant inequalities in chronic undernutrition, with several districts experiencing less pronounced declines. These differences are more nuanced at the district-by-age level, with only districts in more socio-economically advantaged areas of Bangladesh consistently reporting declines in stunting across all age groups.

Culturally appropriate psychotherapy and its retention: An example from Far North Queensland (Australia).

BACKGROUND: Culturally appropriate mental health care is essential in remote Australia. However, while associated with the development of an effective therapeutic alliance, current literature insufficiently reports the retention and psychotherapy outcomes of Indigenous adults. We aimed to describe the characteristics and retention of clients attending the Far North Mental Health and Wellbeing Service (FNS). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study on clients who received one or more psychotherapy consultations between 1st July 2019 and 31st December 2020. Population, entrance, and treatment characteristics were described, with retention compared between the major cultural groups. Entrance characteristics comprised referral pathway and reason for presentation and were investigated as alternative predictors of client retention. FINDINGS: There were 186 non-Indigenous (68.3 % female) and 174 Indigenous (62.6 % female) clients, with a median number of 3.0 consultations (IQR 2.0-5.3). Indigenous status did not significantly predict retention. Referral pathway significantly predicted the number of consultations (Wald X2(6) = 17.67, p = .0071) and immediate discontinuation (Wald X2(6) = 12.94, p = .044), with self-referred clients having the highest retention. Initial presentation reason significantly predicted the number of consultations (Wald X2(5) = 13.83, p = .017), with clients with potential health hazards related to socioeconomic and psychosocial circumstances having the lowest retention. Significantly more Indigenous clients presented for this reason (20.1 % vs 4.3 %). INTERPRETATION: Comparable retention of Indigenous clients suggests cultural appropriateness of the psychotherapy being delivered by the FNS. Services might use the described therapeutic approach as a guide for culturally appropriate care.

Geostatistical modelling of child undernutrition in developing countries using remote-sensed data: evidence from Bangladesh and Ghana demographic and health surveys.

Childhood chronic undernutrition, known as stunting, remains a critical public health problem globally. Unfortunately while the global stunting prevalence has been declining over time, as a result of concerted public health efforts, there are areas (notably in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) where progress has stagnated. These regions are also resource-poor, and monitoring progress in the fight against chronic undernutrition can be problematic. We propose geostatistical modelling using data from existing demographic surveys supplemented by remote-sensed information to provide improved estimates of childhood stunting, accounting for spatial and non-spatial differences across regions. We use two study areas-Bangladesh and Ghana-and our results, in the form of prevalence maps, identify communities for targeted intervention. For Bangladesh, the maps show that all districts in the south-eastern region are identified to have greater risk of stunting, while in Ghana the greater northern region had the highest prevalence of stunting. In countries like Bangladesh and Ghana with limited resources, these maps can be useful diagnostic tools for health planning, decision making and implementation.

Machine learning prediction models for clinical management of blood-borne viral infections: a systematic review of current applications and future impact.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) prediction models to support clinical management of blood-borne viral infections are becoming increasingly abundant in medical literature, with a number of competing models being developed for the same outcome or target population. However, evidence on the quality of these ML prediction models are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the development and quality of reporting of ML prediction models that could facilitate timely clinical management of blood-borne viral infections. METHODS: We conducted narrative evidence synthesis following the synthesis without meta-analysis guidelines. We searched PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for all studies applying ML models for predicting clinical outcomes associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV). RESULTS: We found 33 unique ML prediction models aiming to support clinical decision making. Overall, 12 (36.4%) focused on HBV, 10 (30.3%) on HCV, 10 on HIV (30.3%) and two (6.1%) on co-infection. Among these, six (18.2%) addressed the diagnosis of infection, 16 (48.5%) the prognosis of infection, eight (24.2%) the prediction of treatment response, two (6.1%) progression through a cascade of care, and one (3.03%) focused on the choice of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Nineteen prediction models (57.6%) were developed using data from high-income countries. Evaluation of prediction models was limited to measures of performance. Detailed information on software code accessibility was often missing. Independent validation on new datasets and/or in other institutions was rarely done. CONCLUSION: Promising approaches for ML prediction models in blood-borne viral infections were identified, but the lack of robust validation, interpretability/explainability, and poor quality of reporting hampered their clinical relevance. Our findings highlight important considerations that can inform standard reporting guidelines for ML prediction models in the future (e.g., TRIPOD-AI), and provides critical data to inform robust evaluation of the models.

Routine blood test markers for predicting liver disease post HBV infection: precision pathology and pattern recognition.

BACKGROUND: Early stages of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection usually involve inflammation of the liver. Patients with chronic infection have an increased risk of progressive liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and life-threatening clinical complications of end-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). CONTENT: Early diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis and timely clinical management are critical to controlling disease progression and decreasing the burden of end-stage liver cancer. Fibrosis staging, through its current gold standard, liver biopsy, improves patient outcomes, but the clinical procedure is invasive with unpleasant post-procedural complications. Routine blood test markers offer promising diagnostic potential for early detection of liver disease without biopsy. There is a plethora of candidate routine blood test markers that have gone through phases of biomarker validation and have shown great promise, but their current limitations include a predictive ability that is limited to only a few stages of fibrosis. However, the advent of machine learning, notably pattern recognition, presents an opportunity to refine blood-based non-invasive models of hepatic fibrosis in the future. SUMMARY: In this review, we highlight the current landscape of routine blood-based non-invasive models of hepatic fibrosis, and appraise the potential application of machine learning (pattern recognition) algorithms to refining these models and optimising clinical predictions of HBV-associated liver disease. OUTLOOK: Machine learning via pattern recognition algorithms takes data analytics to a new realm, and offers the opportunity for enhanced multi-marker fibrosis stage prediction using pathology profile that leverages information across patient routine blood tests.

Clinical Validity of a Machine Learning Decision Support System for Early Detection of Hepatitis B Virus: A Binational External Validation Study.

HepB LiveTest is a machine learning decision support system developed for the early detection of hepatitis B virus (HBV). However, there is a lack of evidence on its generalisability. In this study, we aimed to externally assess the clinical validity and portability of HepB LiveTest in predicting HBV infection among independent patient cohorts from Nigeria and Australia. The performance of HepB LiveTest was evaluated by constructing receiver operating characteristic curves and estimating the area under the curve. Delong's method was used to estimate the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Compared to the Australian cohort, patients in the derivation cohort of HepB LiveTest and the hospital-based Nigerian cohort were younger (mean age, 45.5 years vs. 38.8 years vs. 40.8 years, respectively; p < 0.001) and had a higher incidence of HBV infection (1.9% vs. 69.4% vs. 57.3%). In the hospital-based Nigerian cohort, HepB LiveTest performed optimally with an AUROC of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91-0.97). The model provided tailored predictions that ensured most cases of HBV infection did not go undetected. However, its discriminatory measure dropped to 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56-0.64) in the Australian cohort. These findings indicate that HepB LiveTest exhibits adequate cross-site transportability and clinical validity in the hospital-based Nigerian patient cohort but shows limited performance in the Australian cohort. Whilst HepB LiveTest holds promise for reducing HBV prevalence in underserved populations, caution is warranted when implementing the model in older populations, particularly in regions with low incidence of HBV infection.

The Royal Flying Doctor Service Initiation of Helicopter Video Simulation Orientation Training for Air Medical Crews in Western Australia: A Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVE: In May 2022, the Royal Flying Doctor Service Western Operations in Western Australia pioneered the introduction of the first organizational helicopter emergency service with 2 Eurocopter EC145 helicopters. This article describes the pilot study undertaken, assessing the implementation and flight crew confidence outcomes of the supplementation of video simulation training to standard clinical training for helicopter air medical retrieval. METHODS: Survey assessments using a 5-point Likert scale provided anonymous demographic data with summarized results of the means and standard deviations. Nonparametric tests were used to compare responses between the control and experimental groups from pretraining to postintervention to postpractical. RESULTS: The findings showed an increase in confidence rates after a classroom session and further increases after a practical session in the control group. The intervention group showed a small rise in overall confidence levels after being shown video simulations following the completion of their classroom session before commencing their practical session. This study established that regardless of the airframe, clinical staff, often with significant experience in air medical retrieval and critical care medicine, do not automatically have confidence in performing critical care procedures in a new aircraft type to which they have not previously been oriented. The results display a statistically significant increase in confidence levels in procedural performance after the classroom session compared with the pretraining questionnaire, with a subtle further rise when video simulations are included in the classroom session. When a classroom session is subsequently supplemented with a practical simulation session, confidence levels continue to rise. CONCLUSION: Implementing a comprehensive educational strategy including classroom and practical elements for clinical staff in their orientation to new aircraft improves their confidence in performing critical care procedures if required in flight. The addition of in-flight prerecorded videos demonstrating these critical care procedures is a useful adjunct to simulation training for flight crew in air medical retrieval, and further analytical studies may indeed show a statistically significant improvement in staff confidence.

Situation-specific outcomes (Home Situations Questionnaire) in a randomized controlled trial of individual versus group parent training for children with Hyperkinetic Disorder/Attention-deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

OBJECTIVES: Assess (a) the variability of behaviour problems in children with Hyperkinetic Disorder/Attention-DeficitHyperactivity Disorder (HKD/ADHD) across a range of family situations and (b) the degree to which behaviour in each situation can be modified through a cognitive behavioural parent training (CBPT). Furthermore (c), compare the effectiveness of training in two different formats and (d) test the proposition that group treatment benefits behaviour in a wider range of situations than individual treatment. METHOD: A registered multicentre randomized controlled trial comparing individual and group parent training to treatment-as-usual (TAU) for N = 237 children with HKD/ADHD. A German version of the Home Situations Questionnaire (HSQ) was employed to examine behaviour problems across a range of family situations, treatment-related changes post-treatment and at 6-month follow-up, while controlling for medication status. RESULTS: Parents reported considerable variance in severity of behaviour problems across situations. All groups improved with time, but individual and group CBPT led to significantly greater improvement than TAU in many family situations. Results present situation-specific treatment trajectories and demonstrate somewhat greater impact of individual compared with group training in certain situations post-training and 6 months later. CONCLUSIONS: CBPT clearly adds to TAU (with effect sizes in the small to moderate range depending on situation). Individual was somewhat more successful than group format (which did not succeed in a wider range of situations). HSQ situations reveal a differentiated picture of child behaviour and treatment results. Situation-specific assessment with an instrument like the HSQ offers promising perspectives that invite further development.

High Dietary Iron in Western Diet-Fed Male Rats Causes Pancreatic Islet Injury and Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: High dietary iron has been linked to an increased type 2 diabetes risk. We have previously shown that intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and feeding a Western diet (WD) to male Sprague-Dawley rats independently, as well as together, cause pancreatic islet inflammation, fibrosis, and hemosiderosis. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether iron has a role in the pathogenesis of this inflammatory islet injury caused by IUGR and WD intake. METHODS: Male Sprague-Dawley offspring of bilateral uterine artery ligated (IUGR) and sham-operated (Sham) dams, fostered to nonoperated dams, were fed a WD [45% sucrose, 19.4% protein and 23% fat (w/w)] containing low iron (LI, 20 mg/kg) or high iron (HI, 500 mg/kg) from weaning. Four groups were studied: Sham-LI, Sham-HI, IUGR-LI, and IUGR-HI. Serial measurements of rat body weight, blood glucose, lipids and insulin, an intraperitoneal glucose tolerance test (age 13 wk), and histological analysis of pancreas and liver (age 14 wk) were recorded. The effects of iron, IUGR, and their interaction, on these measurements have been analyzed. RESULTS: WD with HI compared with LI caused an 11% greater weight gain by age 14 wk (P < 0.001), impaired glucose tolerance [AUC for glucose (G-AUC) 17% higher; P < 0.001), acute pancreatitis (17/18, HI; 6/17, LI; P < 0.001), pancreas-associated fat necrosis and saponification (7/18, HI; 0/17 LI; P < 0.01), and a trend to islet fibrotic injury (7/18, HI; 1/17 LI; P = 0.051). Although pancreatic and hepatic steatosis was evident in almost all WD-fed rats, pancreatic and hepatic iron accumulation was prevalent only in HI-fed rats (P < 0.0001 for both), being only mild in the livers. IUGR, independent of dietary iron, also caused impairment in glucose tolerance (G-AUC: 17% higher; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A postweaning WD containing HI, independent of IUGR, causes acute pancreatitis and islet injury in Sprague-Dawley rats suggesting a role of dietary iron in the development of steatopancreatitis.

Team effectiveness: epidemiologists' perception of collective performance during emergency response.

BACKGROUND: To describe epidemiologists' experience of team dynamics and leadership during emergency response, and explore the utility of the Team Emergency Assessment Measure (TEAM) tool during future public health emergency responses. The TEAM tool included categories for leadership, teamwork, and task management. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey between October 2019 and February 2020 with the global applied field epidemiology workforce. To validate the TEAM tool for our context, we used exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. RESULTS: We analysed 166 completed surveys. Respondents included national and international emergency responders with representation of all WHO regions. We were unable to validate the TEAM tool for use with epidemiology teams involved in emergency response, however descriptive analysis provided insight into epidemiology emergency response team performance. We found female responders were less satisfied with response leadership than male counterparts, and national responders were more satisfied across all survey categories compared to international responders. CONCLUSION: Functional teams are a core attribute of effective public health emergency response. Our findings have shown a need for a greater focus on team performance. We recommend development of a fit-for-purpose performance management tool for teams responding to public health emergencies. The importance of building and supporting the development of the national workforce is another important finding of this study.

The development of a machine learning algorithm for early detection of viral hepatitis B infection in Nigerian patients.

Access to Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) testing for people in low-resource settings has long been challenging due to the gold standard, enzyme immunoassay, being prohibitively expensive, and requiring specialised skills and facilities that are not readily available, particularly in remote and isolated laboratories. Routine pathology data in tandem with cutting-edge machine learning shows promising diagnostic potential. In this study, recursive partitioning ("trees") and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) were applied to interrogate patient dataset (n = 916) that comprised results for Hepatitis B Surface Antigen (HBsAg) and routine clinical chemistry and haematology blood tests. These algorithms were used to develop a predictive diagnostic model of HBV infection. Our SVM-based diagnostic model of infection (accuracy = 85.4%, sensitivity = 91%, specificity = 72.6%, precision = 88.2%, F1-score = 0.89, Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve, AUC = 0.90) proved to be highly accurate for discriminating HBsAg positive from negative patients, and thus rivals with immunoassay. Therefore, we propose a predictive model based on routine blood tests as a novel diagnostic for early detection of HBV infection. Early prediction of HBV infection via routine pathology markers and pattern recognition algorithms will offer decision-support to clinicians and enhance early diagnosis, which is critical for optimal clinical management and improved patient outcomes.

Severe cyclones and sex-specific birth outcomes in Queensland, Australia: An interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: A male is less adaptable to biological stressors than a female fetus with consequent higher morbidity and mortality. Adverse birth outcomes increase and male livebirths decrease after environmental disasters, economic crises, and terrorist events. We hypothesized the ratio of male to female livebirths would decrease in areas affected by severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in Queensland, Australia. Additionally, in male livebirths, there would be an increase in preterm and low birthweight births. Lastly, we hypothesized that the pregnancy stage at which exposure occurred would modify the association between TC exposure and observed outcomes. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis was used to analyze Queensland administrative birth records from July 2007 to June 2018 for significant changes in the sex ratio at birth, measured as the proportion of male livebirths. Adjusted generalized linear models were fitted to births in areas affected by two category five TCs: cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Marcia (February 2015). To explore male mortality and morbidity risk, additional analysis was conducted on the proportion of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. The association between estimated pregnancy stage during the TC and the proportion of male births was also analyzed. RESULTS: Contrary to our hypothesis, increases in the proportion of male livebirths were observed following early-pregnancy exposure to cyclone Yasi and mid-pregnancy exposure to Marcia, although the latter was not statistically significant. No significant changes were observed in proportions of male stillborn, low birthweight, and preterm births. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a significant association between severe TCs and sex ratio at birth. The stage of pregnancy at which maternal stressors were experienced modified this association. Among people exposed in early to mid-pregnancy, the proportion of male births was higher. This may be because of differential loss of females in utero. Studying sex differences in birth outcomes provides insight into in utero vulnerabilities associated with environmental stressors. Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. Understanding fetal vulnerability to environmental stressors will provide crucial information supporting early life health interventions that mitigate the immediate and long-term effects.

Prevalence of child undernutrition measures and their spatio-demographic inequalities in Bangladesh: an application of multilevel Bayesian modelling.

Micro-level statistics on child undernutrition are highly prioritized by stakeholders for measuring and monitoring progress on the sustainable development goals. In this regard district-representative data were collected in the Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2019 for identifying localised disparities. However, district-level estimates of undernutrition indicators - stunting, wasting and underweight - remain largely unexplored. This study aims to estimate district-level prevalence of these indicators as well as to explore their disparities at sub-national (division) and district level spatio-demographic domains cross-classified by children sex, age-groups, and place of residence. Bayesian multilevel models are developed at the sex-age-residence-district level, accounting for cross-sectional, spatial and spatio-demographic variations. The detailed domain-level predictions are aggregated to higher aggregation levels, which results in numerically consistent and reasonable estimates when compared to the design-based direct estimates. Spatio-demographic distributions of undernutrition indicators indicate south-western districts have lower vulnerability to undernutrition than north-eastern districts, and indicate significant inequalities within and between administrative hierarchies, attributable to child age and place of residence. These disparities in undernutrition at both aggregated and disaggregated spatio-demographic domains can aid policymakers in the social inclusion of the most vulnerable to meet the sustainable development goals by 2030.

Can nebulised HepArin Reduce morTality and time to Extubation in patients with COVID-19 Requiring invasive ventilation Meta-Trial (CHARTER-MT): Protocol and statistical analysis plan for an investigator-initiated international meta-trial of prospective randomised clinical studies.

There is significant interest in the potential for nebulised unfractionated heparin (UFH), as a novel therapy for patients with COVID-19 induced acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure requiring invasive ventilation. The scientific and biological rationale for nebulised heparin stems from the evidence for extensive activation of coagulation resulting in pulmonary microvascular thrombosis in COVID-19 pneumonia. Nebulised delivery of heparin to the lung may limit alveolar fibrin deposition and thereby limit progression of lung injury. Importantly, laboratory studies show that heparin can directly inactivate the SARS-CoV-2 virus, thereby prevent its entry into and infection of mammalian cells. UFH has additional anti-inflammatory and mucolytic properties that may be useful in this context. METHODS AND INTERVENTION: The Can nebulised HepArin Reduce morTality and time to Extubation in Patients with COVID-19 Requiring invasive ventilation Meta-Trial (CHARTER-MT) is a collaborative prospective individual patient data analysis of on-going randomised controlled clinical trials across several countries in five continents, examining the effects of inhaled heparin in patients with COVID-19 requiring invasive ventilation on various endpoints. Each constituent study will randomise patients with COVID-19 induced respiratory failure requiring invasive ventilation. Patients are randomised to receive nebulised heparin or standard care (open label studies) or placebo (blinded placebo-controlled studies) while under invasive ventilation. Each participating study collect a pre-defined minimum dataset. The primary outcome for the meta-trial is the number of ventilator-free days up to day 28 day, defined as days alive and free from invasive ventilation.

Inhaled nebulised unfractionated heparin for the treatment of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: A multicentre case series of 98 patients.

AIMS: To determine the safety and efficacy-potential of inhaled nebulised unfractionated heparin (UFH) in the treatment of hospitalised patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Retrospective, uncontrolled multicentre single-arm case series of hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, treated with inhaled nebulised UFH (5000 IU q8h, 10 000 IU q4h, or 25 000 IU q6h) for 6 ± 3 (mean ± standard deviation) days. Outcomes were activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) before treatment (baseline) and highest-level during treatment (peak), and adverse events including bleeding. Exploratory efficacy outcomes were oxygenation, assessed by ratio of oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2 ) and FiO2 , and the World Health Organisation modified ordinal clinical scale. RESULTS: There were 98 patients included. In patients on stable prophylactic or therapeutic systemic anticoagulant therapy but not receiving therapeutic UFH infusion, APTT levels increased from baseline of 34 ± 10 seconds to a peak of 38 ± 11 seconds (P < .0001). In 3 patients on therapeutic UFH infusion, APTT levels did not significantly increase from baseline of 72 ± 20 to a peak of 84 ± 28 seconds (P = .17). Two patients had serious adverse events: bleeding gastric ulcer requiring transfusion and thigh haematoma; both were on therapeutic anticoagulation. Minor bleeding occurred in 16 patients, 13 of whom were on therapeutic anticoagulation. The oxygen saturation/FiO2 ratio and the FiO2 worsened before and improved after commencement of inhaled UFH (change in slope, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Inhaled nebulised UFH in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 was safe. Although statistically significant, inhaled nebulised UFH did not produce a clinically relevant increase in APTT (peak values in the normal range). Urgent randomised evaluation of nebulised UFH in patients with COVID-19 is warranted and several studies are currently underway.

COVID-19 orphans-Global patterns associated with the hidden pandemic.

Whilst the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant mortality across the globe, many children have been orphaned due to the loss of their parents. Using the framework of an ecological analysis, we used estimates of total maternal/paternal orphans using an online COVID-19 orphanhood calculator to estimate the total orphans per COVID-19 death for 139 countries. Descriptive statistics were used to determine global patterns behind this risk of children being orphaned. Linear regression models were fitted to determine factors associated with this risk, and the association with vaccination coverage was calculated. We found that there is tremendous global variation in the risk that COVID-19 deaths will lead to orphaned children, and that this risk is higher in countries below median GDP per capita (1·56 orphans per deaths) compared to countries above (0·09 orphans per death). Poverty prevalence (B = 2·32, p<0·01), GDP per capita (B = -0·23, p<0·05), and a greater proportion of people with NCDs being reproductive aged (B = 1·46, p<0·0001) were associated with this risk. There was a negative correlation between 2nd dose vaccination coverage and orphans per death (p<0·05). The risk of children being orphaned per COVID-19 death, alongside fertility rate, is due to there being a greater share of COVID-19 deaths among younger persons. This is more likely in poorer countries and those where the age distribution for non-communicable diseases that elevate COVID-19 mortality risk are more uniform. Due to vaccine coverage inequity, more children will suffer the loss of their parents in poorer countries.

The double burden of malnutrition and dietary patterns in rural Central Java, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia is undergoing a nutrition transition (NT) comprised of rising rates of overweight/obesity and consumption of high fat food/snacks but is still struck by undernutrition, causing a double burden of malnutrition. Little research pertains to the double burden of malnutrition and its associations with diet in rural Indonesia using primary village level data. METHODS: We conducted a 24-hour food recall and food frequency questionnaire and assessed anthropometric status of rural villagers from four villages in Central Java, Indonesia. Exploratory principal component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns and multi-level modeling was performed to identify variables associated with dietary pattern indicative of the NT. FINDINGS: 1,521 participants were included in analysis. Double burden of malnutrition was prevalent whereby 32.3% of children were stunted, 68.8% of women 35-49 years-old were overweight, and 39% of homes were classified as double burden. The NT was evident in a dietary pattern associated with soft drink, snacks, and animal products. There was small but significant correlation between undernutrition and stunting status among children (r = -0.139, p < 0.01). The NT was associated with young age (B = 1.696, 95% CI = 1.508-1.885) but not with overweight (B = -0.099, 95% CI = -0.184--0.013). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that whilst the typical pattern of the double burden of malnutrition (stunted child/overweight adult) exists in rural Central Java, dietary patterns indicative of the NT are predominant among children, not adults. Overweight among adults may not be necessarily due to a diet indicative of the NT, and nutrition interventions in rural Central Java should focus on educating parents of young children about the health-risks of a diet associated with a NT. FUNDING: Funding was obtained from the UBS-Optimus Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis of data published between 2010 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is an infectious disease of global significance, causing a significant health burden in Africa due to complications associated with infection, such as cirrhosis and liver cancer. In Nigeria, which is considered a high prevalence country, estimates of HBV cases are inconsistent, and therefore additional clarity is required to manage HBV-associated public health challenges. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature (via PubMed, Advanced Google Scholar, African Index Medicus) was conducted to retrieve primary studies published between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019, with a random-effects model based on proportions used to estimate the population-based prevalence of HBV in the Nigerian population. RESULTS: The final analyses included 47 studies with 21,702 participants that revealed a pooled prevalence of 9.5%. A prevalence estimate above 8% in a population is classified as high. Sub-group analyses revealed the highest HBV prevalence in rural settings (10.7%). The North West region had the highest prevalence (12.1%) among Nigeria's six geopolitical zones/regions. The estimate of total variation between studies indicated substantial heterogeneity. These variations could be explained by setting and geographical region. The statistical test for Egger's regression showed no evidence of publication bias (p = 0.879). CONCLUSIONS: We present an up-to-date review on the prevalence of HBV in Nigeria, which will provide critical data to optimise and assess the impact of current prevention and control strategies, including disease surveillance and diagnoses, vaccination policies and management for those infected.